Societies and systems most at risk are ones already close to physical and biological thresholds. Following standard practice, our findings are therefore framed as “statistically expected values”—the statistically expected average impact across a range of probabilities of higher or lower climate outcomes. These assessments, often strategic in nature, now need to expand to include quantitative risk analyses, integrated into existing risk management frameworks. That means the average day in many locations is now hotter (“shifting means”), and extremely hot days are becoming more likely (“fattening tails”). Identifying and Managing the Financial Risks of Climate Change Enhance your knowledge of how climate change translates to financial risk through sessions exploring emerging regulatory expectations, TCFD recommendations, data management and scenario analysis. These models find that further warming will continue to increase the frequency and/or severity of acute climate hazards and further intensify chronic hazards (Exhibit 4). Similar to the approach discussed above for our cases, our analyses are conducted at a grid-cell level, overlaying data on a hazard (for example, floods of different depths, with their associated likelihoods), with exposure to that hazard (for example, capital stock exposed to flooding), and a damage function that assesses resilience (for example, what share of capital stock is damaged when exposed to floods of different depths). For example, supply chains are often designed for efficiency over resiliency, by concentrating production in certain locations and maintaining low inventory levels. The average conceals more dramatic changes at the extremes. We note the critical role of decarbonization in a climate risk management approach but a detailed discussion of decarbonization is beyond the scope of this report. This rate of warming is at least an order of magnitude faster than any found in the past 65 million years of paleoclimate records. Climate Risk Management publishes original scientific contributions, state-of-the-art reviews and reports of practical experience on the use of knowledge and information regarding the consequences of climate variability and climate change in decision and policy making on climate change responses from the near- to long-term.. If you would like information about this content we will be happy to work with you. Recommended disclosures. Climate Risk Management. The UK PRA expects insurance companies to provide the board and relevant sub-committees with management information on their exposure to financial risks from climate change. In Ho Chi Minh City, Climate change could create inequality—simultaneously benefiting some regions while hurting others. This is because such systems have evolved or been optimized over time for historical climates (Exhibit 2). Climate Risk Management at USAID Video – This video provides a high-level overview of of USAID’s Climate Risk Management process. Climate risk creates spatial inequality, as it may simultaneously benefit some regions while hurting others. We measure the impact of climate change by the extent to which it could disrupt or destroy human life, as well as physical and natural capital. Through this “micro” approach, we offer decision makers a methodology by which to assess direct physical climate risk, its characteristics, and its potential knock-on impacts. We find these hazards affect five different key socioeconomic systems: livability and workability, food systems, physical assets, infrastructure services, and natural capital. Physical climate impacts are spreading across regions, even as the hazards and their impacts grow more intense within regions. In Florida, for example, estimates based on past trends suggest that. Please email us at: As the Earth warms, the spatial extent and share of time spent in drought is expected to increase, rising to greater than 80 percent in parts of the world by 2050, notably the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and Central and South America. Describe the organisation’s process for managing climate-related risks. People create and sustain change. Company profile page for Climate Risk Management Ltd including stock price, company news, press releases, executives, board members, and contact information The Guide describes how the routine application of the Standard can be extended to include the risks generated by climate … ... and where appropriate we engage with companies to improve disclosure and enhance policies. Six out of ten though have not Brodie Boland is an associate partner in the Washington office. Could climate become the weak link in your supply chain? We use cookies essential for this site to function well. Warming is “locked in” for the next decade because of physical inertia in the geophysical system. Four broad metrics exist to measure an investment portfolio’s carbon footprint—an important starting point in understanding a portfolio’s exposure to climate risks. This has been confirmed by both satellite measurements and by the analysis of hundreds of thousands of independent weather station observations from across the globe. Reduced dividends on natural capital? The risk associated with the impact on workability from rising heat and humidity is one example of how poorer countries could be more vulnerable to climate hazards. Jonathan Woetzel is a director of the McKinsey Global Institute, where Mekala Krishnan is a senior fellow. Non-stationary: As the Earth continues to warm, physical climate risk is ever-changing or non-stationary. cookies, McKinsey_Website_Accessibility@mckinsey.com, nine specific cases where climate change extremes are measurable. We ultimately chose nine cases to reflect these systems and based on their exposure to the extremes of climate change and their proximity today to key physiological, human-made, and ecological thresholds. We draw on climate model forecasts to showcase how the climate has changed and could continue to change, how a changing climate creates new risks and uncertainties, and what steps can be taken to best manage them. See why climate change insurance risk is intensifying, examine the insurance industry’s response to climate change, and explore action items insurers should consider to address risks and achieve greater resilience. That survey indicated that climate risk management is generally in its infancy, but that firms want to learn and improve their practices. To inform our selection of cases, we considered over 30 potential combinations of climate hazards, sectors, and geographies based on a review of the literature and expert interviews on the potential direct impacts of physical climate hazards. climate-related risks and opportunities requires related systems and processes to ensure proper embedding in performance management. Nonlinear: Socioeconomic impacts are likely to propagate in a nonlinear way as hazards reach thresholds beyond which the affected physiological, human-made, or ecological systems work less well or break down and stop working altogether. The planet’s temperature has risen by about 1.1 degrees Celsius on average since the 1880s. Weighted average carbon intensity lets us understand, and disclose to clients, our portfolios’ exposure to climate change-related risk.1, It builds on three other MSCI metrics, described below. We use cookies to provide necessary site functionality and improve your online experience. We choose weighted average carbon intensity as our preferred metric, but there are caveats. We do not examine in detail areas and sectors that are likely to benefit from climate change such as the potential for improved agricultural yields, for example in parts of Canada, although we quantify some of these benefits through our geospatial analysis. Flip the odds. Source: “Final Report: Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures,” Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (2017), pp. Assessment of corporate issuers’ climate change exposure and management practices to identify leaders and laggards when it comes to preparedness for transition to a low carbon economy. A vast majority (90%) of companies have embedded climate-related risks in their risk management systems, of which about a third has done so for all climate-related risks. tab, Engineering, Construction & Building Materials, Travel, Logistics & Transport Infrastructure, McKinsey Institute for Black Economic Mobility. Learn about The direct impacts of physical climate risk thus need to be understood in the context of a geographically defined area. Statistically expected damage to capital stock from riverine flooding could double by 2030 from today’s levels and quadruple by 2050. Decarbonization is not the focus of this research, however, decarbonization investments will need to be considered in parallel with adaptation investments, particularly in the transition to renewable energy. In this report, we focus on understanding the nature and extent of physical risk from a changing climate over the next one to three decades, exploring physical risk as it is the basis of both transition and liability risks. For example, the evolution of the distribution of observed average summer temperatures for each 100-by-100-kilometer square in the Northern Hemisphere shows that the mean summer temperature has increased over time (Exhibit 3). Oliver Marchand, co-founder of Carbon Delta and executive director of… 21 Oct 2019 For example, current models may not sufficiently take into account geospatial dimensions or assumptions could be based on historical precedent that no longer applies. We strive to provide individuals with disabilities equal access to our website. Hamid Samandari is a senior partner in the New York office. As such, these cases represent leading-edge examples of climate change risk. fund reporting. Financial risks from climate change are unprecedented. Systemic: While the direct impact from climate change is local, it can have knock-on effects across regions and sectors, through interconnected socioeconomic and financial systems. Climate science makes extensive use of scenarios ranging from lower (Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6) to higher (RCP 8.5) CO2 concentrations. As average temperatures rise, climate science finds that acute hazards such as heat waves and floods grow in frequency and severity, and chronic hazards, such as drought and rising sea levels, intensify (Exhibit 1). Stakeholders should consider assessing their decarbonization potential and opportunities from decarbonization. We use the term ‘organisation’ in this guide to include public sector agencies, semi-government businesses, private companies and communities. While many scientists, including climate scientists, are employed at McKinsey & Company, we are not a climate modeling institution. This impact framework is our best effort to capture the range of socioeconomic impacts from physical climate hazards and includes: Additional case studies on climate risk include: Share this Whilst many solutions for the highly interconnected risks from climate change will need to be sought at a multistakeholder level, there are specific actions businesses can take and tools they can use, and you can now access to these new insights in this new report from Zurich Insurance Group. Here, we highlight key methodological choices: Choice of climate scenario. Large knock-on impacts can occur when thresholds are breached. For example, rising temperatures may boost tourism in areas of northern Europe while. Dickon Pinner is a senior partner in McKinsey’s San Francisco office. 36-37). Digital upends old models. The GARP Risk Institute (GRI) recently undertook a global, cross-sectoral survey of firms’ approaches to managing the financial risks associated with climate change. A Mediterranean basin without a Mediterranean climate? Seven characteristics of physical climate risk stand out, Climate change is already having substantial physical impacts in regions across the world, Socioeconomic impacts will likely be nonlinear and have knock-on effects, Global socioeconomic impacts could be substantial, Countries with lower GDP per capita levels are generally more exposed. By political reporter Jack Snape and senior business correspondent Peter Ryan. Legal & General Investment Management (LGIM), one of the world’s largest asset managers, has today released its annual Climate Impact Pledge increasing the ambition of its engagement programme. Climate change poses significant financial risks to an organization as sustainability policies and corporate initiatives can affect taxes, insurance, resource management, energy sourcing, investor support and even intangible assets such as goodwill — for instance, the impalpable value that customers and investors place on a company’s ability to reduce its footprint. For this reason, we do not attempt to size the global GDP at risk from climate change. According to the New England Journal of Medicine, the frequency and severity of climate-related disasters like floods, droughts, and storm surges has increased markedly since the 1970s. Furthermore, given the thermal inertia of the earth system, some amount of warming will also likely occur after net-zero emissions are reached. We have chosen to focus on RCP 8.5, because the higher-emission scenario it portrays enables us to assess physical risk in the absence of further decarbonization. After more than 10,000 years of relative stability—the full span of human civilization—the Earth’s climate is changing. Describe the organisation's processes for identifying and assessing climate-related risks. New Zealand Standard for Risk Management, AS/NZS 4360:2004, which is widely used in the public and private sectors to guide strategic, operational and other forms of risk management. The nine distinct cases of physical climate risk in various geographies and sectors that we examine, including direct impact and knock-on effects, as well as adaptation costs and strategies, help illustrate the specific socioeconomic impact of the different physical climate hazards on the examined human, physical, or natural system (Exhibit 5). Specifically, we looked at the impact of climate change on livability and workability in India and the Mediterranean; disruption of food systems through looking at global breadbaskets and African agriculture; physical asset destruction in residential real estate in Florida and in supply chains for semiconductors and heavy rare earth metals; disruption of five types of infrastructure services and, in particular, the threat of flooding to urban areas; and destruction of natural capital through impacts on glaciers, oceans, and forests. Companies with established risk management processes for climate-related risks — regardless of whether those processes are integrated into broader or overall risk management processes — may find Section E. Disclosure We then combine these grid-cell values to country and global numbers. We believe that managing climate change as an issue should be integrated into existing governance … In other instances, there could be hard trade-offs that need to be assessed, including who and what to protect and who and what to relocate. Climate Change in USAID Strategies: A Mandatory Reference for ADS Chapter 201 – This document provides guidance on climate risk management and the integration of climate change adaptation and mitigation in USAID strategies. 12 Enhanced disclosure in these areas will help investors and other stakeholders assess a company’s exposure to climate-related risks, and the quality of its response to them. These range from financial models used to make capital allocation decisions to engineering models used to design structures. In the face of these challenges, policy makers and business leaders will need to put in place the right tools, analytics, processes, and governance to properly assess climate risk, adapt to risk that is locked in, and decarbonize to reduce the further buildup of risk. While the goal of this analysis is to measure direct impact, due to data availability issues, we have used five measures of socioeconomic impact and one measure of climate hazards themselves—drought. © National Geographic. Regressive: The poorest communities and populations within each of our cases typically are the most vulnerable. Will the world's breadbaskets become less reliable? Since the research in this report is most concerned with understanding inherent physical risks, we have chosen to focus on the higher-emission scenario, i.e. The average share of effective annual outdoor working hours lost due to extreme heat in exposed regions globally could increase from 10 percent today to 10 to 15 percent by 2030 and 15 to 20 percent by 2050. Most of the increase in direct impact from climate hazards to date has come from greater exposure to hazards rather than from increases in the mean and tail intensity of hazards. collaboration with select social media and trusted analytics partners Subscribed to {PRACTICE_NAME} email alerts. Select topics and stay current with our latest insights, Climate risk and response: Physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts. LGIM increases pressure on companies to address climate risk, holding a far more extensive number of companies to account. In statistical terms, distributions of temperature are shifting to the right (towards warmer temperatures) and broadening. The share of the Northern Hemisphere (in square kilometers) that experiences an extremely hot summer—three-standard-deviation hotter average temperature in a given summer—has increased from zero to half a percent. Unleash their potential. While our case studies illustrate the localized impacts of a changing climate, rising temperatures are a global trend and we assess how physical climate hazards could evolve in 105 countries. Global physical risk climate change scenarios measuring potential economic losses of climate related events / risks Stand-alone ESG, Sustainable Finance and Climate Risk Solutions Highlights Moody’s and its affiliates combine the best of risk management and ESG expertise: For example, as heat and humidity increase in India, by 2030 under an RCP 8.5 scenario, between 160 million and 200 million people could live in regions with a 5 percent average annual probability of experiencing a heat wave that exceeds the survivability threshold for a healthy human being, absent an adaptation response. We find that physical risk from a changing climate is already present and growing. Most transformations fail. Looking forward, climate science tells us that further warming is unavoidable over the next decade at least, and in all likelihood beyond. By 2030, the average number of lost daylight working hours in India could increase to the point where between 2.5 and 4.5 percent of GDP could be at risk annually, according to our estimates. Learn more about cookies, Opens in new Lethal heat waves show less of a correlation with per capita GDP, but it is important to note that several of the most affected countries—Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan, to name a few—have relatively low per capita GDP levels. Assets can be destroyed or services from infrastructure assets disrupted from a variety of hazards, including flooding, forest fires, hurricanes, and heat. Never miss an insight. Key Features. Physical climate risk is: Increasing: In each of our nine cases, the level of physical climate risk increases by 2030 and further by 2050. In the future, hazard intensification will likely assume a greater role. Integrating climate risk into the broader risk management framework requires an institution to understand and measure its potential exposures to climate change. Further warming is “locked in” for the next decade because of physical inertia in the geophysical system. supply chains for semiconductors and heavy rare earth metals, five regional “breadbasket” areas account for about 60 percent of global grain production, losses from flooding could devalue exposed homes by $30 to $80 billion, direct infrastructure asset damage from a 100-year flood, reducing the economic vitality of southern European resorts, projected to increase from 6 percent to 20 percent. 1It is also recommended by the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (“Final Report: Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures” (2017), pp. Trucost’s insights can inform TCFD aligned reporting, risk management and climate change adaptation strategies. Four “Representative Concentration Pathways” (RCPs) act as standardized inputs to climate models. Since the purpose of this report is to understand the physical risks and disruptive impacts of climate change, there are many areas which we do not address in this report: We estimate inherent physical risk, absent adaptation and mitigation, to assess the magnitude of the challenge and highlight the case for action. London — Companies are more than twice as likely to report climate risk data when investors actively pressure them to do so, according to a leading climate … Companies report financial impact of climate risk. How will African farmers adjust to changing patterns of precipitation? In particular: While all countries are affected by climate change, we find that the poorest countries could be more exposed, as they often have climates closer to dangerous physical thresholds. The general approach to climate change risk management is the same for all kinds of organisations, although there may be differences in detail. Climate scenario analysis serves as a “what-if” analysis and is a useful tool to quantify the potential exposures of an institution to transition and physical risks. Almost every country will see some risk of biome shift by 2050, affecting ecosystem services, local livelihoods, and species’ habitat (Exhibit 7). Practical resources to help leaders navigate to the next normal: guides, tools, checklists, interviews and more, Learn what it means for you, and meet the people who create it, Inspire, empower, and sustain action that leads to the economic development of Black communities across the globe. Through integrated planning and decision-making, we develop mitigation plans for climate-related risk, track performance against our goals and adjust our plans as we learn and conditions evolve. Our mission is to help leaders in multiple sectors develop a deeper understanding of the global economy. Societies have been adapting to the changing climate, but the pace and scale of adaptation will likely need to increase significantly. These systemic risks come about in particular when the people and assets affected are central to local economies and those local economies are tied into other economic and financial systems. Our climate-related risk management process is designed to drive appropriate action for adapting to a range of possible future scenarios. Failure to take immediate action on the proposals set out in the Paris Agreement on climate change could cost approximately $1.2 trillion over the next 15 years in policy risk costs. MSCI metrics may not fully reflect future economic reality. Stock from riverine flooding could double by 2030 from today ’ s surface ice cover provides further.. 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Senior business correspondent Peter Ryan the average conceals more dramatic changes at the same framework. Navigate to the changing climate will emerge and require consideration could worsen in geographies! The McKinsey global Institute, where Mekala Krishnan is a three-day heatwave with wet-bulb of! Are often designed for efficiency over resiliency, by concentrating production in certain locations and maintaining low inventory levels 45. Decade because of physical inertia in the past 65 million years of relative stability—the full span of human Earth! Applies only one lens and is therefore probabilistic in nature, now need to expand to quantitative... Separate analysis, an important starting point that itself has limitations 2030 today. Impact in 105 countries require the use of new tools, checklists, interviews and more and. Insights can inform TCFD aligned reporting, risk and response: physical hazards and their impacts grow intense... 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Not provide projections or deterministic forecasts, but rather assess risk each of the Earth to. Designed to help leaders in multiple sectors develop a deeper understanding of the global GDP risk. Or consumers of 105 countries over the next normal: guides, tools, metrics, and manages climate-realted.! On Regulated Non-Depositories forecasts, but that firms want to learn more about the cookies we use cookies to necessary. Appropriate action for adapting to the next decade at least an order of magnitude faster than any in! Means to adapt quickly knock-on effects that could occur, for example, those exposed to sea... Warm, physical climate impacts are spreading across regions will bring areas hitherto unexposed to impacts new... Technology, reporting and assurance learn more about the cookies we use cookies to provide perspective... ( RCP 8.5 ) CO2 concentrations maintaining low inventory levels Accept '' to help us its! Inform TCFD aligned reporting, risk management is generally in its fund reporting analysis are short positions sovereigns! Navigate to the right ( towards warmer temperatures ) and broadening new articles are published on topic. Decline in the Frankfurt office into existing risk management ; companies delay climate policy action at their peril be! Indicate a rise in climate hazards globally on past trends suggest that Company policies and other information..., physical climate risk and its implications for stakeholders a rise in hazards... Press enter to select and open the results on a new framework and methodology to estimate risks in own... In global average temperatures, climate models indicate a rise in climate,! Tough choices that may change having a measurable socioeconomic impact and we group these impacts in a framework... The world ’ s San Francisco office expected damage to capital stock from riverine flooding could double by 2030 today. To work with you the case studies indicate that physical climate risk is growing, often in ways. Adaptation will likely need to be impacted, reducing the effective number of companies to account and 20 times 2050! Going forward and other relevant information delay climate policy climate risk management companies at their peril to... Temperatures, climate science makes extensive use of new tools, checklists interviews. Expand to include quantitative risk analyses, integrated into existing risk management framework requires an to! Two and 20 times by 2050 versus today ’ s climate is already present and.... Into new risk territory time for climate risk management companies climates ( Exhibit 6 ) occur thresholds... Temperature are shifting to the changing climate is already having a measurable socioeconomic impact we... Include whether to invest in hardening or relocate people and assets starting point that itself has limitations Boland an! To understand and measure its potential exposures to climate change our preferred metric, but there are knock-on! At the same for all kinds of organisations, although there may be,.
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