1990. 42, pp. FIGURE 6.5 Illustrative example: Areas within which the dose rate from external gamma radiation exceeds 1,10, 100, and 1,000 millirems per hour at 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, and 6 months after the detonation of a 250 kiloton surface burst at 7:00 p.m. on July 14, 2004, in Washington, D.C. The answers to the first two questions depend critically on detailed information about the facility, including its location, construction, and layout; the type and number of agent containers and their placement within the facility; and the amount and type of agent and the form in which it is stored. The result of this disaster is a continual explosion of radioactive materials and lasts for 10 days. SOURCE: Estimates prepared for the committee by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. The “effective” dose is the sum of equivalent doses to various organs multiplied by a weighting factor that is established according to the estimated likelihood of a cancer occurring in that organ; the sum of all weighting factors is 1. If an enemy’s nuclear weapons are not one-point safe, it is possible that a conventional attack could result in a nuclear detonation. “Fallout from Nuclear Tests: Dosimetry in Kazakhstan,” Radial. In that case an upper limit for the effects is similar to the limits estimated in Figure 6.7. Shull. Similarly, conventional weapons could collapse surface or near-surface entrances to such a facility and thereby hinder or delay the use of agents by the enemy. Ng, L.R. Each plant and animal responded differently to the accident depending on the … Figure 1. Late effects are thyroid cancer, especially in children and adolescents, and leukaemia among exposed workers. Such an event occurred in the area of Troy, New York, following the NTS test Simon in April 1953.33 An area of enhanced deposition also occurred in Indiana following the Trinity test in New Mexico in 1945. E.88.IX.7; also, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR), 2000, Sources, Effects and Risks of Ionizing Radiation, UNSCEAR 2000 report to the General Assembly, with scientific annexes, United Nations, New York, Sales No. Bot., Vol. 93-101. It takes a large explosion to produce such injections, on the order of hundreds of kilotons. Figure 6.6 shows the estimated mean number of casualties resulting from attacks on Targets A, B, and C with surface-burst weapons and earth-penetrator weapons of a range of yields from 1 kt to 10 kt, with the EPW detonated at a depth of 3 meters, assuming a static population in the open. R.A. Kerber, J.E. View our suggested citation for this chapter. Till, S. Simon, J.L. Relative to other effects, initial radiation is an important cause of casualties only for low-yield explosions (less than 10 kilotons). Finally, the transport of radioactive waste also causes carbon dioxide emissions. After … Of course, as mentioned frequently, Figure 6.9(a) and (b) are model runs and therefore are subject to the sources of uncertainty described in this report and emphasized in Chapter 8. Even if all safety precautions are followed, it is no guarantee that a nuclear power plant accident will not occur. This activity has created some controversy about, among other things, the level of collateral damage that would ensue if such a weapon were used. This larger dose is due to the entrance during cloud passage of large particles into the upper respiratory tract, from which the particles are coughed up and swallowed. In the nuclear industry, yet now the most dangerous accident is counted as Chernobyl disaster. Note that for yields of less than 300 kilotons, fallout is responsible for more casualties than are prompt effects. For additional information, see the section titled “Background” in Chapter 1. For example, a soldier entering the 10 millisieverts per hour (1,000 millirems per hour) contour 1 day after the explosion would accumulate a total dose of about 0.25 sievert (25 rems) over the next 2 days and 0.50 sievert (50 rems) over the next 2 weeks. The use of an EPW instead of a surface-burst weapon generally will result in fewer casualties, because the yield of the EPW can be 15 to 25 times smaller than the yield of a surface-burst weapon for a given level of damage against a hard and deeply buried target (HDBT). Immediate effects (blast, thermal radiation, prompt ionizing radiation) are produced and cause significant destruction within seconds or minutes of a nuclear detonation. For a hypothetical device (with approximately 50 percent fission fraction, i.e., 50 percent of the explosive power from fusion) that produces an integrated external dose of 1 rad, the dose to an infant’s thyroid would be about 16 rads from the consumption of milk with 131I and a few other radionuclides (132Te, 132I, 133I, and 135I). Unlike conventional explosions, a single nuclear explosion can generate an intense pulse of thermal radiation that can start fires and burn skin over large areas. In general, the reduction factor is larger for targets in rural or remote areas. The potential for fire damage depends on the nature of the burst and the surroundings. United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR), 1988, Sources, Effects and Risks of Ionizing Radiation, UNSCEAR 1988 report to the General Assembly, with annexes, United Nations, New York, Sales No. F.W. Other radionuclides of concern in terms of contaminated foods are 89Sr, 90Sr, and 137Cs. Long-term exposure to low level radiation has been shown to damage DNA. Only the passing of time and increasingly positive reports from monitoring agencies will ease the fear and worry of the Japanese people. The contribution of these exposure pathways to the acute radiation dose usually is not substantial and would not significantly alter the estimates presented above. United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). Long-term exposure to low level radiation has been shown to damage DNA. The disaster negatively altered animal, plant and human life in the area. Thus, most of the external dose received by persons within several kilometers of the detonation point is due to radiation from the deposited material rather than from the airborne cloud itself. However, as noted above, the rate of external exposure to gamma radiation decreases rapidly with time, and the denial of land use due to fallout is not of great concern relative to other effects of fallout. A milk cow, if it is receiving its full quota of food from fresh pasture, will consume per day the amount of 131I that is contained on about 50 square meters,25 and it will secrete up to 1 percent of that daily intake into a liter of milk.26 Typically, a human consuming milk will concentrate 30 percent of his or her intake into the thyroid gland. SOURCE: Estimates prepared for the committee by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. attack). Another issue is uncertainty about whether the casks will leak after the waste is buried. Hicks. The largest fraction of the risk is due to thyroid disease. 1993. However, an unfavorable wind for an EPW is, of course, also an unfavorable wind for a surface burst; the same is true for favorable winds. The 619-622. Other types of food crops typically have less ability to capture fallout or have more indirect and longer pathways to humans. For example, 40,000 deaths result from attacks on Target A from the 10 kiloton EPW with the wind blowing from the west and the 250 kiloton surface burst with the wind blowing from the east. It is not likely that effects in excess of that indicated for pine forests would occur. Radiation can cause dramatic reductions in antioxidants, making the birds that travel farthest the most vulnerable to nuclear contamination. United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). For the reasons previously discussed (i.e., the generally fragile nature of most toxic agents), the calculated number of fatalities for the release of sarin is certainly too high. 622-632. Existing estimates of the amount of agent that might be destroyed or dispersed in a nuclear attack are based entirely on computer models using greatly simplified assumptions. Kirchner. SOURCE: Estimates prepared for the committee by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Nuclear explosions produce air-blast effects similar to those produced by conventional explosives. People against nuclear energy propose using combined methods of solar, wind and geothermal energy. As an illustrative example,7Figure 6.1 shows the area over which an individual in the open would face a 10, 50, and 90 percent chance of death or serious injury8 from the prompt effects of a 10-kiloton earth-penetrator weapon (EPW) detonated at a depth of 3 meters and from the prompt effects of a 250 kiloton surface burst. With no electricity to power the cooling systems, water inside the reactors began to boil off, causing meltdowns of the uranium fuel rods inside of reactor cores 1 to 3. Nuclear disasters can cause widespread death and sickness among wildlife, just like humans. Facilities can be defeated or destroyed without destroying the agent inside. “A Cohort Study of Thyroid Disease in Relation to Fallout from Nuclear Weapons Testing,” JAMA, Vol. Nuclear weapons are capable of delivering the very large amounts of heat and radiation required to destroy large stocks of chemical and biological agents. H.G. To put the dose rates referred to above in perspective, a person who remained indefinitely in an area where the dose rate was 1 millirem per hour at the time of that person’s entry into the area would receive a total dose of less than 50 millisieverts (5 rems), which is the annual dose limit for U.S. nuclear workers.9 Thus, military personnel could enter the unshaded areas shown in Figures 6.4 and 6.5 at the times indicated with minimal risk. The first three of these effects are “prompt” effects, because the harm is inflicted immediately after the detonation. DTRA estimates that an attack with existing conventional weapons could cause the release in respirable form of 0.1 to 5 percent of the agent inventory.44 Calculations indicate that an attack with a nuclear weapon could result in comparable releases if the weapon was detonated close to but not within a facility, but much smaller releases if the weapon was detonated in the same room as the agent. 1999. E.96.IX.3. Whicker, T.B. Due to space constraints, eventually the radioactive waste will need to be relocated. The curves for Targets B and C are steeper (a. Furthermore, damage caused by the earthquake and tsunami disabled the power supply and cooling mechanisms of the Fuhushima Daiichi nuclear reactors. The computer models used by DTRA and LLNL were developed primarily to estimate effects on military personnel rather than for civilian populations. The smaller particles are also preferentially retained by vegetation,24 from which they are lost with a half-retention time of about 10 days. However, there are no reports of any such radiation-induced effects in plants and animals outside this area, referred to as the Exclusion Zone. effects of fallout; 50,000 to 160,000 for deaths from latent effects from fallout; and 60,000 to 900,000 for total fatalities. International Commission on Radiological Protection. Fukushima nuclear reactor melt down is written in understandable manner in this write-up. High-pressure cleaners for decontamination. FIGURE 6.2 Illustrative example: The area over which an individual in the open would face a 10, 50, and 90 percent chance of death or serious injury from the prompt effects of fallout from a 10 kiloton earth-penetrator weapon (EPW; left) and a 250 kiloton surface burst (right) detonated at 7:00 p.m. on July 14, 2004, in Washington, D.C. Nonetheless, activity measured in foodstuffs is falling. Ball The meltdown at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant is one of the worst environmental disasters to befall humanity. Nuclear power plants constantly emit low levels of radiation into the environment. These concerns are relevant only with the detonation of thousands of high-yield weapons. 270, pp. Therefore the IAEA, in cooperation with FAO, UNDP, UNEP, UN-OCHA, UNSCEAR, WHO and The World Bank, as well as the competent authorities of Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine, established the Chernobyl Forum in 2003. Little is known, however, about the effect of radioactive … Such effects of groundwater will be far less than the effects of blast, fire, and on-the-ground fallout. K. Gordeev, I. Vasilenko, A. Lebedev, A. Bouville, N. Luckyanov, S.L. On March 11, 2011, the magnitude 9.0 Tokuku earthquake struck off northeastern coast of Japan. Currently, much of the radioactive waste from nuclear power plants has been stored at the power plant. “Global fallout” is a general term that describes the injection of nuclear debris into the stratosphere. The Fukushima nuclear disaster put much of Japan's nuclear power program on hold. The Effects of Nuclear Weapons, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. Similarly large variations in fatalities are also possible if the target is just outside a major city. Nuclear power has been called a clean source of energy because the power plants do not release carbon dioxide. Following the reactor accident in March 2011, some 120,000 people in a radius of up to 40 kilometres around the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant had to leave their homes due to the high levels of radiation. H.G. In some cases, the fires ignited by the explosion can coalesce into a firestorm, preventing the escape of survivors. 250 kiloton surface burst. The most notable example of such a radionuclide is plutonium. Immediate effects (blast, thermal radiation, prompt ionizing radiation) are produced and cause significant destruction within seconds or minutes of a nuclear detonation. The committee therefore did a parameter analysis in which the EPW yield ranged from 1 to 1,000 kt. It is also worth noting, however, that with unfavorable winds the lower-yield EPW would cause about as many deaths as would the higher-yield surface burst with favorable winds. The manner in which the agent is stored (e.g., the types of containers, location in multiple storage. Five years ago, the largest single release of human-made radioactive discharge to the marine environment resulted from an accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan. Simon, Y. Stepanov, S. Shinkarev, and L. Anspaugh. 1965. For more than 25 years, total the ecosystem in the surrounding area is in complete devastation. In the immediate aftermath of the accident, an area of about four square miles became known as the “Red Forest” because so many trees turned reddish-brown and died after absorbing high levels of radiation. This explosion released a huge amount of radio-active material into the environment. Fortunately, the relevant experience is very limited. For example, if 100 people received an average effective dose of 1 sievert, 5 would be expected to die from cancer as a result of this exposure. Plans have been proposed to bury the radioactive waste contained in casks in the Yucca Mountains in Nevada. The Chernobyl accident is the most serious accident in the history of the nuclear industry. Nuclear explosions produce air-blast effects similar to those produced by conventional explosives. Water decomposition caused by contact with hot fuel rods created an accumulation of hydrogen gas that exploded and destroyed thr… Nuclear power plants may not emit carbon dioxide during operation, but high amounts of carbon dioxide are emitted in activities related to building and running the plants. Consequently, other techniques will likely be employed to create safe operating conditions for the weapons. J.J. Koranda. “The Hazard from Plutonium Dispersal by Nuclear-Warhead Accidents,” Science and Global Security, Vol. It is by the combination of several fairly unique circumstances that this radionuclide has been the major radionuclide of concern from the viewpoint of food contamination for both nuclear weapons tests and for reactor accidents. Even in this situation, however, the consumption of contaminated water was not a substantial pathway. Reconstruction of thyroid dose from past events has included elaborate attempts to reconstruct sources of milk or movement of milk from one region to another.29,30 If this type of predictive assessment were to be included in an analysis of effects, it would be necessary to have a database that gave the population density of humans as well as milk animals. National Cancer Institute. E.00.IX.4. For example, see National Research Council, 2002, Making the Nation Safer, National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., p. 49. iStock. 107-314, directed the Secretary of Defense to request from the NRC a study of the anticipated health and environmental effects of nuclear earth-penetrators and other weapons and the effect of both conventional and nuclear weapons against the storage of biological and chemical weapons. Cooling systems are used to keep nuclear power plants from overheating. Ng. In the event of an accident, the radioactive waste could possibly leak. Contamination of other types of food crops would also occur. The current amount of radioactive waste requiring long-term storage would fill the Yucca Mountains and new sites would need to be found to bury future radioactive waste. For example, a nuclear EPW could crush a storage facility under 100 meters of rock without destroying (or releasing) any agent. There has been a negative response in the occurrence of glaucoma. [vi] Fifteen months after 733,000 curies of radioactive cesium were pumped into the Pacific, 56 percent of all fish catches off Japan were found to be contaminated with it. The explosion at the nuclear reactor released clouds of radiation over much of Japan’s agricultural land. For Figures 6.6 and 6.7 the calculations assume that the entire population is static and in the open. In the case of Target A, for example, the 50 percent confidence interval for deaths due to acute effects of fallout (based solely on variability in wind direction) is 130,000 to 600,000; that is, there is a 75 percent chance of exceeding 130,000 deaths from acute effects of fallout, and a 25 percent chance of more than 600,000 deaths. The effects discussed here are only those from the nuclear weapon and its direct effects and do not include chemical and biological agents, which are discussed in the section of this chapter entitled “Effects of Attacks on Chemical and Biological Weapons Facilities.”. In. had to be evacuated. Under unusual circumstances, such as the large-scale subsidence of air masses or the penetration of large thunderstorms into the stratosphere, the deposition of 131I was also noted.36 The negative worldwide reaction to global fallout was intense in the early 1960s, and this was one of the more important factors that resulted in the agreement to stop atmospheric tests by the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union. If facilities or storage areas are penetrated by a nuclear or conventional weapon, significant degradation (thereby reducing potential releases) can be effected by heat (>1,000 degrees Fahrenheit and residence time >20 to 30 seconds). Although the accident occurred nearly two decades ago, controversy still surrounds the impact of the nuclear disaster. Nuclear energy has been proposed as an answer to the need for a clean energy source as opposed to CO2-producing plants. 30,000 to 200,000 for latent effects; total fatalities, however, vary by less than a factor two, from 1 million to 2 million. The accident has also had important psychosocial effects. TWS member James Beasley has been at the forefront of research looking at the effects of nuclear disasters on wildlife. The number of eye cataracts, based on the experience of the Chernobyl workers, is not small. “Meteorological Processes in the Transport of Weapon Radioiodine,” Health Phys., Vol. Substantial amounts of 131I activity are created by nuclear explosions; this radionuclide is also volatile and does not condense on particles until late, at which time it becomes associated with the surfaces of fallout particles.23 Most of the total surface activity is contained on the smaller particles, so 131I is typically transported farther. Radiation dose coefficients for this pathway have been published by the ICRP.4, Another long-term health effect that is not considered here is the induction of eye cataracts. The result of this disaster is a continual explosion of radioactive materials and lasts for 10 days. By: James MacDonald. These comparisons indicate the sensitivity to wind of collateral damage to populations. 1997. Anspaugh, and Y.C. Even with all of these qualifications, certain important points can be made: It is important to distinguish between the defeat or destruction of a chemical or biological weapons facility and the destruction of the chemical or biological agent contained within it. Note that for a given yield there is little or no difference between the effects of surface bursts and the EPWs.13 The curves for Target A are relatively flat (a factor-of-10 increase in yield produces a factor-of-2 increase in casualties) because the population is clustered around the target. 2076-2082. An accurate estimate of the number of latent cancer fatalities from this exposure pathway would require estimating the amount of contamination in milk and various other foods, the consumption of these foods by the population, the internal dose from each radionuclide to each organ, and the use of organ-specific risk coefficients.32, The computer codes used for this study do not consider deposition at very great distances. The results of these studies have been interpreted by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP)1 in terms of a lifetime risk coefficient of 0.05 per sievert (5 × 10−4 per rem), with no threshold.2 For the present study, acute radiation effects were estimated by both DTRA and LLNL; latent cancer deaths were estimated only by LLNL. “Backyard cows” are of more concern, as such cows typically consume more pasture as opposed to stored feed, and the owners frequently drink more than an average amount of milk. The transfer of radio nuclides to the fetus resulting from their intake by the mother is another pathway of concern. Although many studies have validated and verified the fate of chemical agents during transport, few are available for biological agents, and the fate of biological agents during transport is therefore difficult to model. In each case, the committee asked DTRA to estimate the mean number of casualties (deaths and serious injuries from prompt effects, and acute effects of fallout from external gamma radiation) resulting from attacks with earth-penetrating weapons with yields ranging from 1 kiloton to 1 megaton, for populations completely in the open and completely indoors. Due to the explosion of the reactor and the subsequent fire, a series of consequences were unleashed in many aspects. This is frequently not the case. The greatest such risks would arise from weapons containing plutonium. 1982. FIGURE 6.6 Estimated mean number of casualties (deaths and serious injuries) from attacks on notional targets A, B, and C using earth-penetrator weapons at 3 meters’ depth of burst and surface bursts, assuming a static population in the open. The catastrophic event that was the nuclear disaster at Chernobyl occurred more than 30 years ago, and yet the impacts are lasting and still felt today. “Noncancer Disease Incidence in Atomic Bomb Survivors, 1958-1998,” Radiat. The National Command Authority and the deployers have opportunities and the responsibility to execute an attack on HDBTs in ways to minimize collateral damage by taking into account wind direction as well as yield. This was one of the largest seismic events to hit the country (triggering a tsunami with wave heights of 133 ft.). Depending on the risk that is judged acceptable by commanders. Nuclear detonations release large amounts of neutron and gamma radiation. It is important to note that this pathway, consumption of contaminated food, can be relatively more important for fallout from nuclear explosion accidents in nonurban areas in the sense that milk animals are more likely to be located in rural areas. the extreme uncertainties about the effects of a nuclear attack, as well as the certainty that the minimum consequences would be enormous, both play a role in the deterrent effect of nuclear weapons. SOURCE: Estimates prepared for the committee by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. 669-679. Unfortunately, detailed information of this kind is likely to be highly uncertain or unavailable for many potential targets. Y.C. 1949. The radioactive materials released by the accident had many immediate harmful effects on plants and animals living within 20 to 30 km of the Chernobyl power plant at the time of the accident. According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, regulated safety procedures are not being followed to ensure that nuclear power plants are safe. The delayed effects (radioactive fallout and other possible environmental effects) inflict damage over an extended period ranging from hours … SOURCE: Estimates prepared for the committee by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. First, the cooling system pulls water from an ocean or river source. “Movement of Radionuclides in Terrestrial Ecosystems by Physical Processes,” Health Phys., Vol. Although the committee has not done a comprehensive analysis of the effect of wind direction for a wide range of yields, it is apparent that the casualty-reduction factor (the ratio of number of casualties for a surface burst to that for an EPW with a yield 25 times smaller) could be considerably lower or higher than the mean ratios given in Figure 6.8, depending on wind direction. Accordingly, the committee expects that a conventional attack on a facility containing radiological weapons or radioactive materials would be unlikely to produce a substantial number of civilian deaths or acute illnesses, beyond those caused directly by the conventional attack itself. Nuclear explosions produce both immediate and delayed destructive effects. But after the initial radiation leaks subside, research has shown that wildlife communities can recover to levels sometimes higher than they were before the catastrophes. The earthquakes, its aftershocks, and the powerful tsunami it triggered led to the deaths and injuries of thousands of people. 21-41. a hypothetical nuclear accident at the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant in Avila Beach, CA during the months of March and September. Fires can also result as an indirect effect of the destruction caused by a blast wave, which can, for example, upset stoves and furnaces, rupture gas lines, and so on. 1990. Agricultural Factors Affecting the Daily Intake of Fresh Fallout by Dairy Cows, UCRL 12479, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, Calif. National Cancer Institute. If the burst is in a city environment where buildings are closely spaced, say less than 10 to 15 meters, fires will spread from burning buildings to adjacent ones. A shallow-penetrating nuclear weapon of, say, 100 to 300 kilotons at a 3 to 5 meter depth of burst will generate a substantial fireball that will not fade as fast as the air blast. FIGURE 6.10(b) The probability of exceeding a given number of deaths due to acute and latent effects from external exposure to gamma-radiation fallout from a 300 kiloton earth-penetrator weapon at 3 meters’ depth of burst on notional target B, assuming that the population is in the open. Even a limited nuclear war would throw enough soot into the atmosphere to block sunlight and lower global temperatures by more than one degree Celsius. 5 Fallout and Tools for Calculating Effects of Release of Hazardous Materials, The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons, Effects of Attacks on Chemical and Biological Weapons Facilities, 4 Effectiveness of Nuclear Weapons Against Hard and Deeply Buried Targets, Appendix C: Equivalent Yield Factors for Energy Coupling. Initial radiation. “Calculation of the Concentration of Any Radionuclide Deposited on the Ground by Off-site Fallout from a Nuclear Detonation, Health Phys., Vol. The main problem with beta injuries is that the material must come into contact with skin, and HPAC has no means to determine the orientation and skin exposure posture of the population, nor the secondary beta burns received by people touching a surface contaminated with beta particles. Casualties from fallout can be substantially higher or lower, depending on the particular wind conditions during and immediately following the attack. For Target B, the corresponding intervals are 9,000 to 40,000 for deaths from acute effects of fallout; 10,000 to 60,000 for deaths from latent effects from fallout; and 20,000 to 90,000 for total fatalities. Shortly after a magnitude 9.0 M earthquake occurred off the East coast of Japan on Friday, March 11, 2011, the Pacific coastline of Japan's Northern islands was struck with a massive tsunami. FIGURE 6.7 Estimated mean number of casualties from prompt effects and acute radiation sickness and death from fallout resulting from attacks on notional targets A, B, and C using earth-penetrator weapons (EPWs) at 3 meters’ depth of burst, assuming the entire population is in the open. Also, you can type in a page number and press Enter to go directly to that page in the book. Lyon, D.C. Thomas, S. Preston-Martin, M.L. 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